Analyst: Armenia's EU membership unlikely this decade

Armenia declares an increasingly pro-European course, which irritates its long-standing partner Russia. Aleksandr Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute, analyses what has changed in the country following elections and how Armenia will build its foreign policy in coming years.

Armenia has shifted decisively westward in recent years, but Aleksandr Iskandaryan, director and political analyst at the Caucasus Institute, warns against excessive expectations: EU membership this decade is not a realistic prospect for the country.

Pro-European course irritates Moscow

Armenia has gradually distanced itself from Russia in recent years, which has been the country's long-standing partner and security guarantor. Moscow has been clearly critical of Yerevan's westward course, and bilateral relations have cooled markedly. However, Armenia is not yet ready for a complete break with its eastern neighbour, which still wields significant influence in the region.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia is also seeking paths to normalize relations with its neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey. This is a difficult balancing act, given the historical tensions and unresolved territorial conflicts in the region.

Foreign policy in coming years

According to Iskandaryan, building Armenia's foreign policy in coming years is a complex task, as the country must navigate competition between great powers. While the EU-oriented movement is clear, full integration requires years of reforms and negotiations that do not fit into the present decade.

Following recent elections, Armenia's domestic political situation has stabilized, but challenges in security and diplomacy persist. Analysts stress that as Armenia continues its westward course, it must account for both regional forces and the interests of great powers.