Analyst: Ukraine in strongest position since start of war

Michael Kofman, senior fellow and military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Latvian defence conference that Russia's offensive in Ukraine has nearly stalled. Ukraine has managed to conduct successful counteroffensives across multiple front sections, putting the country in its most favourable military position since the war began.

Military analyst Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated on 18 June 2026 at the annual security and defence conference of the Latvian National Defence Academy that Ukraine is currently in the best military position throughout the entire war.

Russia's offensive has slowed

According to Kofman's assessment, Russia's offensive in Ukraine has practically stalled. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have managed to conduct successful counteroffensives across multiple front sections, resulting in significant positional changes on the battlefield.

Ukraine's resilience grows

The Latvian National Defence Academy conference is one of the most important security policy forums in the Baltics, where every year defence experts, analysts and decision-makers from around the world meet. Kofman's statement reflects a broader shift in the military situation, where Ukraine's defensive capability and resilience have grown markedly.

Although specific front sections have not been detailed, Kofman's assessment suggests that Ukraine has managed to stabilise its defensive lines and even advance tactically, which provides grounds for optimism both in Kyiv and in Western countries.