Armenia's elections: Pashinyan needs pro-Russia opposition support for peace deal

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party secured 49.8% of votes in parliamentary elections, guaranteeing a parliamentary majority and a government without coalition partners, but not enough to hold the referendum required to seal a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. A referendum is necessary to amend the constitution, removing all references to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Now Pashinyan must seek support from the pro-Russia opposition, which has no incentive to back such a vote.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won parliamentary elections but faces a complex political dilemma. His Civil Contract party gathered 49.8% of votes, enough for a parliamentary majority and to form a new government without coalition partners, but not enough to unilaterally hold a referendum on constitutional amendments.

Why a referendum is critical

Pashinyan needs a referendum to conclude a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Baku demands that Yerevan remove from the country's constitution all references to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a constitutional amendment requires at least a 65% parliamentary supermajority to enable unilateral referendum proceedings. Civil Contract fell significantly short of this threshold.

Pro-Russia opposition holds the key

Pashinyan now finds himself in a position where he must seek support from parties traditionally oriented toward Russia and who have no interest whatsoever in backing the referendum needed to complete a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. This creates a paradoxical political situation: advancing the peace process now depends on the cooperation of forces that have been sharp critics of Pashinyan's pro-Western course.

Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations have continued for years following the 2020 war and Azerbaijan's military operation in September 2023, which restored Baku's control over Nagorno-Karabakh. Signing a peace agreement would mean final renunciation of territorial claims to a region whose inhabitants had been ethnically Armenian for decades.