Colonel Kalmus: Cutting off Crimea's supply lines is becoming a realistic goal

Estonian Colonel Aron Kalmus says that Ukraine's increasingly precise drone strikes are making the isolation of Crimea's supply routes a realistic military objective. He also assessed the effectiveness of Ukraine's layered air defence system, which has been capable of intercepting around 95% of incoming threats. On the broader front, Kalmus described the situation as a stalemate, with Russian advances reduced to a minimum.

Estonian military analyst and Colonel Aron Kalmus says that cutting Crimea off from its Russian supply lines has become a realistic goal for Ukraine, thanks to increasingly capable long-range drone strikes. Speaking on the programme "Ukraina stuudio", Kalmus outlined a detailed picture of the current state of the war, from Ukraine's layered air defence to the challenges of destroying the Kerch Bridge.

The front line: a war of metres

Kalmus described the overall frontline situation as a broad stalemate. «In the big picture it is a stalemate, but the kilometres gained by either side cannot be taken at face value,» he said. «We are really talking about changes measured in square metres or square kilometres in the grey zone.» He noted that Russian officers on the ground tend to report even minor infiltrations as advances, which distorts the overall picture, adding that both sides are operating under a heavy fog of war.

Ukraine's air defence: a layered system

One of the most discussed topics was Ukraine's air defence, which has reportedly been able to intercept around 95% of incoming drones and missiles. Kalmus explained that this success is not due to any single system, but to a comprehensive, multi-layered defence architecture built up since the first days of the war.

«Ukraine's air defence does not rely only on one or two pillars such as Patriot long-range missiles or IRIS-T medium-range missiles,» Kalmus said. «An entire air defence layer has been built, starting from early warning and ending with unified command.» The system combines stationary positions calibrated to known Russian attack corridors, mobile teams that can rapidly reposition, and an electronic warfare dimension that diverts some threats without firing a single missile.

Kalmus added that Ukrainian operators have, in many respects, become more proficient with NATO weaponry than some NATO members themselves. «The learning experience gained with various Patriot missiles and IRIS-T systems shows that at times one has to go there to learn, given the effectiveness they have demonstrated,» he said.

The bombing of a Kyiv monastery

Kalmus also commented on the Monday night bombing of Kyiv that struck a UNESCO-listed Orthodox monastery, a site of immense religious and historical significance. While stopping short of declaring the strike intentional, he said the circumstantial evidence points in that direction.

«Taking into account the earlier saga surrounding the separation of the Russian Orthodox Church from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, I think this could have been entirely deliberate, a desire to demoralise the population, something that has been done before,» Kalmus said. He added that the incident illustrates that Russia appears to have «no stoppers or limits» when it comes to striking culturally symbolic targets.

Crimea: drones closing in

On the question of Crimea's supply lines, Kalmus was notably direct. Ukraine has been systematically targeting bridges, roads and convoys on the Kerch peninsula using drones, including AI-guided systems that no longer require a human operator in the final phase of attack. The flat, open terrain of the Kerch isthmus makes it particularly easy for drones to identify and strike moving targets.

«Disrupting supply lines is one of the basic principles of warfare, cut off the tail, the logistics, and it begins to affect the front line and also the economy,» he explained. He noted that the Ukrainians demonstrated this principle years ago with HIMARS strikes 80 kilometres behind the front line, which caused panic and forced Russian logistics further back.

As for the Kerch Bridge itself, Kalmus was pragmatic. Destroying it entirely would require something on the scale of the 20 tonnes of explosives used in a truck bombing that previously collapsed one and a half spans. No current drone or missile carries a warhead capable of that. «Systematically hitting the bridge's support beams would be needed, and the Russians have now covered those with nets and close-protection systems,» he said. A temporary disruption, however, is within reach. «With a modern drone equipped with a larger warhead, it is possible to put the bridge temporarily out of action.»

Kalmus concluded that fully severing Crimea would ultimately require ground forces, boots on the ground, but disrupting its logistics with drones is already well within Ukraine's independent capability.