Emor analyst: Isamaa has wider growth potential than Keskerakond among Estonian voters

Research firm Emor's business division head Aivar Voog says Isamaa competes across a broader spectrum of voters than Keskerakond, giving it greater potential to grow support among Estonian-speaking voters. While Keskerakond dominates among Russian-speaking voters, its competition for Estonian voters is limited mainly to Isamaa and EKRE. Voog spoke on ERR's web show "Otse uudistemajast" on Friday.

Aivar Voog, head of the business division at research firm Emor, says that while Isamaa and Keskerakond share a partially overlapping voter base, Isamaa has a distinct advantage when it comes to growing support among Estonian-speaking voters, because it competes across a wider ideological front.

Voog made the remarks on Friday on ERR's web show "Otse uudistemajast," analysing the latest June polling data.

Keskerakond's ceiling among Estonians

According to Voog, Keskerakond's path to growing its Estonian-speaking support runs almost exclusively through Isamaa and EKRE voters. Among Russian-speaking voters, the party already commands an overwhelming lead, roughly two thirds of Russian-speaking respondents backed Keskerakond in the June survey.

«Keskerakond has it somewhat easier than Isamaa in that sense. But if Isamaa is discussed as a potential coalition partner [with EKRE and Keskerakond], it's worth noting that Isamaa simultaneously competes with Reformierakond and Parempoolsed,» Voog said.

He noted that Keskerakond reaching 20% in overall support is "pretty much certain," but questioned whether it could significantly exceed that figure.

A split electorate

Voog described the Estonian electorate as divided into two broad blocs. One is more conservative, comprising supporters of Isamaa, Keskerakond, and EKRE. The other is more liberal, encompassing Reformierakond, the Social Democrats, and Eesti 200.

Crucially, Isamaa competes for conservative Estonian-speaking voters against both Keskerakond and EKRE, but also vies for right-leaning voters against Reformierakond, Eesti 200, and the rising Parempoolsed party. This multi-front competition gives Isamaa more room to attract voters from different directions.

«When we ask which party people would consider voting for, the overlap in consideration is greatest between Reformierakond, the Social Democrats, and Eesti 200,» Voog explained.

Reformierakond's strategic dilemma

Commenting on the June finding that Keskerakond's support among Estonian voters had climbed to 13%, on par with both EKRE and Reformierakond, Voog dismissed it as a likely statistical fluctuation rather than a meaningful trend.

He also offered strategic advice for Reformierakond: the party should focus on competing against the Social Democrats rather than positioning itself against Isamaa. Voters who could realistically switch to Reformierakond are more likely to come from the Social Democrat camp, he argued.

Voog noted that while Eesti 200's ratings remain low, the party still has potential to grow back to around 10%, though whether that materialises remains uncertain. He also pointed to Parempoolsed as a clearly rising force that will gain visibility during campaign season, and that any recovery by Reformierakond would likely come at the expense of either Keskerakond's Estonian voters or Isamaa's support base.

«Recovering is always easier than building stable support from scratch, you can randomly spike upward, but building stable support is easier for those who need to restore it, like Isamaa once did,» Voog said.