Estonian defence official: Ukraine's long-range strikes force Russia into impossible choices

Ukraine's expanding long-range strike capability is forcing Russian commanders to make increasingly difficult trade-offs, as air defences cannot protect all critical sites simultaneously, according to Gert Kaiu, head of defence readiness at the Estonian Ministry of Defence. This week, Ukrainian strikes hit two Russian space communication centres, multiple oil refineries, and a rocket component factory in Voronezh. Russia's long-range strike volume dropped sharply last week, though Kaiu warned this could precede a major wave of attacks.

Ukraine's growing arsenal of long-range precision weapons is putting Russia's military leadership in an increasingly untenable position, forcing commanders to consciously accept the risk that some critical infrastructure will be left undefended, Gert Kaiu, head of the defence readiness department at the Estonian Ministry of Defence, said this week.

Strikes on Key Russian Infrastructure

This week alone, Ukrainian forces struck two Russian space communication centres that handle a significant share of the Russian military's battlefield communications. Refineries in the Moscow, Tyumen, and Orenburg regions were also hit, as were fuel storage facilities including in Russian-occupied Crimea. A factory producing rocket components in the Voronezh region was additionally targeted.

«Ukraine's growing long-range strike capability has placed Russia's leadership in a difficult position: because air defence resources are insufficient to cover everything, priorities must be chosen. This inevitably involves risks, some facilities are left without protection and one must accept that they will be destroyed or put out of action,» Kaiu said.

Fuel Shortages Spreading Across Russia

The cumulative effect of Ukrainian medium- and long-range strikes has knocked out up to 20% of Russia's oil refining capacity, Kaiu noted. «This has caused a serious fuel shortage in Russia, with various sales restrictions introduced in approximately 20 regions,» he said. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the impact of Ukraine's long-range campaign, and the Russian government has been tasked with minimising the consequences of these attacks.

Ukraine's 2026 Strategy

Kaiu outlined Ukraine's broader strategic logic for 2026: inflicting heavier casualties on Russian forces, developing its own precision-strike capabilities, and disrupting Russian logistics. «Through long-range strikes, Ukraine also aims to significantly weaken Russia's economic resilience in sustaining military operations, in order to compel it to engage in serious negotiations to the table,» he explained.

Russian Strike Volumes Drop Sharply

On the battlefield, attack activity this week remained broadly in line with previous weeks, though the volume of Russian long-range strikes fell markedly. «The intensity of Russian long-range strikes has decreased significantly compared to the previous period. Russia launched approximately 900 drones and 12 missiles, down 35% in drones and 84% in missiles compared to preceding weeks,» Kaiu said.

He cautioned, however, that past experience suggests such lulls tend to precede large-scale Russian attacks involving substantial numbers of aerial weapons. «Time will tell whether and when those attacks materialise,» he added.

Donbas Front Under Pressure

On the ground, Russia has managed to advance in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv region, as well as toward Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces have conducted counter-attacks along almost the entire front line, with both sides engaging in offensive as well as defensive operations in the so-called grey zone.

Russia continues to suffer heavy losses, reaching an estimated 1,300 soldiers per day including both killed and wounded.

Kaiu highlighted that the situation for Ukraine has become more complicated near the strategically important town of Kostiantynivka, a key node in a major Ukrainian defensive line. «Capturing this line is a priority task for Russia, necessary for the occupation of Donbas. Ukraine, for its part, is reinforcing in this area and intensifying medium-range strikes to paralyse Russian logistics,» he explained. The effects are already visible: Russia has been forced to withdraw some units from the area due to logistics difficulties.