Estonian Geological Survey: Toolse phosphate mining not economically viable

The Estonian Geological Survey's research showed that phosphate extraction and processing in the Toolse deposit in western Virumaa is not economically justified under current market conditions. Although the phosphate reserves in the survey area are estimated at 42.4 million tonnes and the industry would create over 500 jobs, the state would need to provide approximately 120 million euros in annual subsidies to ensure the project's profitability. The Geological Survey stated that no further moves to open the mine are planned.

The Estonian Geological Survey released the long-awaited results of its phosphate survey in late June 2026, concluding that phosphate extraction in the Aru-Lõuna survey area of the Toolse deposit in western Virumaa is not currently economically justified.

Key findings of the survey

Tiit Kaasik, head of the natural resources department at the Estonian Geological Survey, explained that the technological side did not yield surprises. "The main conclusion of the survey conducted in the Aru-Lõuna survey area is that Estonian phosphate can be extracted and processed using modern industrial technologies. This results in quality products. But under current market conditions, this activity is not economically viable," Kaasik said.

The biggest surprise turned out to be the scale of total costs compared to current market prices. "We knew what the market prices were for various products made from phosphate. We knew how much phosphate we had. But when we account for all the various costs involved in getting this phosphate out of the ground, we actually didn't have those figures," Kaasik noted.

The numbers blocking the project

Survey project manager Jaanus Purga highlighted specific economic obstacles. "The analysis showed that at an 8% discount rate, the project's profitability would become positive only if the phosphoric acid sale price rose to approximately 1,570 euros per tonne. However, the average market price over the past five years has been approximately 900-1,100 euros per tonne," Purga explained.

Additionally, the phosphate quality in the Aru-Lõuna survey area is too low, with an average P₂O₅ content of approximately 9.74%, whereas positive project profitability would require at least 14% content.

The phosphate reserves in the survey area are estimated at 42.4 million tonnes, and a limestone quarry has operated there for years. The phosphate industry would provide employment for over 500 people in western Virumaa, but the state would need to support the project with approximately 120 million euros annually to make it economically viable at all.

Environmental impacts and survey costs

During the survey, which cost over five million euros, potential impacts on groundwater levels were also analysed. It was found that mining operations would not affect the flow rates or water quality of springs and rivers located on the Pandivere highlands. However, it was discovered that quarry-style mining would impact the Lasnamäe-Kunda and Ordovician-Cambrian groundwater layers in the immediate vicinity of the mine, with pressure levels declining.

For the survey, 28.6 tonnes of phosphate were extracted from the ground at the end of 2024, of which 11 tonnes were used directly for analysis. Originally, the results were expected to be ready by the end of 2025, but finding suitable researchers proved more difficult than anticipated, and the survey was delayed by half a year.

What happens next?

According to Kaasik, no active moves towards opening the mine are planned. "Various scientific research may continue in the background that would support a reassessment of this matter in the future," he said, adding that the state currently has no plans to survey other Estonian phosphate deposits.

The survey results will be presented in the coming weeks at a phosphate conference in Sõmeru in western Virumaa and in early August at an opinion festival in Paide.