Harri Tiido: Is today's world repeating the mistakes of pre-WWI Europe?

Estonian diplomat and commentator Harri Tiido draws parallels between today's geopolitical landscape and the world before the First World War, warning that rising nationalism, trade wars, and accumulating mutual accusations between great powers echo the dangerous conditions of over a century ago. Tiido draws on Yale historian Odd Arne Westad's 2023 book "The Coming Storm" to map current powers onto their early 20th-century counterparts.

In his latest episode of the commentary series Harri Tiido taustajutud, Estonian diplomat and analyst Harri Tiido focuses on a question that is troubling many observers of global affairs: how closely does today's world resemble the era that preceded the catastrophe of 1914?

History as a Warning

Tiido's reflection draws heavily on Yale University history professor Odd Arne Westad's newly published book The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict and Warnings From History (2023). The book argues that the world is entering a period in which several great powers compete for dominance across regions and domains, from nuclear technology and artificial intelligence to the conquest of space. Trade, which had grown progressively freer over previous generations, is becoming restricted and fragile once again. Tiido notes some disagreement with Westad's treatment of the war in Ukraine, but finds the broader historical framework compelling.

The comparison to the pre-1914 era is striking. Back then, great powers clashed with one another, nationalism and populism were on the rise, protectionism was growing, and ordinary people blamed foreigners for their problems. Immigration and terrorism were headline issues. That world ended in a catastrophic war that set back global economic development by decades.

The Great Powers, Remapped

Westad's mapping of today's powers onto their historical predecessors makes for uncomfortable reading. China, in this framework, plays the role of early 20th-century Germany, an ascending power forcing its way into great-power status. The United States is the new Britain: a declining hegemon increasingly reluctant to shoulder the costs of maintaining its global position. Russia resembles the crumbling Austro-Hungarian Empire, a disintegrating imperial structure desperately seeking continued relevance. India, meanwhile, echoes France of that era, preoccupied with internal cohesion, regional status, and a fear of being left behind.

Tiido finds the analogy broadly convincing, though he notes that today's picture is more complex, with more players and overlapping interests. What is undeniable, he argues, is that the unique post-World War II position of the United States is now in question, much as British hegemony was eroding in the late 19th century. And just as the British helped undermine their own standing through unnecessary wars and unclear strategic priorities, the Americans appear to be doing the same in this century.

Nationalism and Mutual Blame

One of the most alarming parallels Tiido identifies is the accumulation of mutual accusations between great powers, particularly between the United States and China. Nationalism is gaining strength across the board, from Xi Jinping's drive to restore Chinese greatness to Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions and anti-foreign sentiment rising in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.

Tiido draws a pointed comparison between Kaiser Wilhelm II and Xi Jinping, both exhibiting contempt for democratic institutions, labour organisers, student activists, and regional authorities. China's Communist Party elite, he argues, increasingly resembles the Junker class of imperial Germany, conflating its own worldview with the interests of the nation. Xi, like Wilhelm before him, exercises full command over the armed forces.

Putin, meanwhile, is driven not by communism but by what Tiido describes as ultra-conservative Russian nationalism and a vague notion of a "Russian World" that must be restored, analogous to the Habsburg belief that their empire stood as a bulwark between stability and chaos in Central Europe. The most dangerous aspect of this, Tiido warns, is its unpredictability, particularly given Russia's lack of resources and strategic clarity to actually achieve its imperial ambitions.

The Risk of Miscalculation

Tiido adds his own commentary on the ongoing US-Israeli military operations against Iran, noting an absence of clear strategic objectives, flawed assessments of how events would unfold, and what he describes as arrogant and infantile behaviour by US President Donald Trump.

The conclusion is sobering. Few leaders today actively seek war as a solution, Tiido acknowledges. But as Westad warns, war can begin through misunderstanding and miscalculation. The most important lesson from a century ago may be the simplest: alternatives to war must be found and cultivated, before the conditions for one become irreversible.