How Sergei Ivanov Lost Putin's Trust and Never Led Russia

Journalist Mikhail Zygar describes in his book "All the Kremlin's Men", how Sergei Ivanov was between 2005-2007 a more likely successor to Putin than Dmitri Medvedev, until he made one fatal mistake. Ivanov's sudden death has brought this rivalry back into public attention. The book is being republished soon through Meduza publishers.

Sergei Ivanov's sudden death in Moscow has brought into public focus one of the Kremlin's most significant "what if" questions in history: how did the former defence minister and Putin confidant nearly become President of Russia, and why did it not happen.

Two Candidates, One Throne

Journalist and author Mikhail Zygar describes in detail in his work "All the Kremlin's Men" how Vladimir Putin decided in 2005, during his second presidential term, to promote two confidants simultaneously: Dmitri Medvedev became First Deputy Prime Minister and Sergei Ivanov simply Deputy Prime Minister. According to Putin's former advisors, this was actually camouflage, in autumn 2005 Medvedev was being prepared as the successor, but promoting Ivanov was meant to hide the plan's obvious intent.

But things changed. Ivanov, whom Putin initially regarded as merely a sparring partner for Medvedev, began tipping the scales in his favour. His nationalist-patriotic rhetoric found considerably more resonance with television viewers. The ideologue Vladislav Surkov, close to the Kremlin, also shifted his preferences towards Ivanov, liking that the youth movements Surkov had created and willingly echoing his counter-revolutionary rhetoric.

Ivanov as Soviet James Bond

Zygar describes Ivanov as the ideal Soviet intelligence officer: classical education, fluent in English and Swedish, interests in ballet and basketball, and every morning reading American and British newspapers, complete with grumbling about how the West distorted Soviet reality. Starting from the Leningrad branch of the KGB, Ivanov's career was actually more successful than Putin's: he worked in residencies in Finland and Kenya, while Putin spent years in East Germany.

Ivanov's scope in international affairs was vast. In 2001, after Putin's first meeting with George W. Bush, Ivanov became the Kremlin's main point of contact towards Washington, with Condoleezza Rice doing the same from the American side.

From the Bronze Soldier to the St Petersburg Forum

In spring 2007, the relocation of the Bronze Soldier monument in Tallinn became a central event in Tallinn. Russian demonstrations in Tallinn were immediately supported by Surkov's "Nashi" activists, who organized both a "raid" on Tallinn and a blockade of the Estonian embassy in Moscow, which was a clear violation of the Vienna Convention. Ivanov later met with "Nashi" activists and thanked them for their work, saying he "supported patriotic sentiments".

By summer 2007, Ivanov appeared to be on a winning path. In June, he was entrusted with opening the St Petersburg Economic Forum, with Putin appearing only on the second day. Ivanov's regional visits featured in every television newscast, his ratings clearly exceeded Medvedev's.

The Fateful Mistake in Asia

Then Ivanov made a mistake that the Kremlin would not forgive. On a foreign visit to Asia, where Putin and Ivanov discussed air defence systems deliveries, Ivanov answered a question from his conversation partner without even glancing at Putin. Putin turned to him and said quietly: "What, are you going to answer for me now?"

Zygar writes that Ivanov probably believed too confidently in his chances of winning and could not hide his desire to become president. According to the recollections of former Kremlin staff, this was the moment when Putin's attitude changed. In December 2007, Putin named Medvedev as his successor.

Ivanov's sudden death has prompted many to wonder what might have become of Russia and the entire world if, on that Asia visit, Ivanov had merely glanced at his superior.