Lukashenko caught between Kyiv and Moscow over Belarus's role in the war

Russia is intensifying pressure on Belarus to deepen its involvement in the war against Ukraine, using financial leverage to push Minsk toward opening a second front. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued an ultimatum demanding that Belarus remove signal relay equipment allegedly used to guide Russian drone strikes on Kyiv, or Ukraine will do it itself. Lukashenko has not publicly responded to the ultimatum in nearly a week.

Belarus finds itself squeezed between two warring powers, with Russia pushing Minsk to expand its military role in the conflict and Ukraine threatening to strike relay equipment on Belarusian soil if Lukashenko refuses to act.

Moscow turns up the heat

According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, citing current and former European and Russian officials, Russia has significantly increased pressure on Belarus in 2026 to draw the country further into the war. Moscow's goals include expanding drone strikes against Ukraine using Belarusian territory, pulling Ukrainian forces away from Donbas, and conducting operations against neighbouring NATO countries.

A former Russian intelligence officer told WSJ that negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko are primarily conducted through Russia's ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, with financial support, on which Minsk is heavily dependent, used as the main lever of pressure.

Sources stressed that there are no immediate signs Belarus is about to be pulled deeper into the conflict, but the possibility remains open, particularly as Russia's advance in Donbas has slowed and Ukraine has stepped up strikes deep into Russian rear areas, triggering a fuel crisis across the country.

Zelensky's ultimatum

On June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sharply escalated pressure on Lukashenko. Commenting on the Belarusian leader's repeated promises not to join the war, Zelensky demanded proof through action, not words.

«On his towers there are relay stations. On his territory, along two regions bordering Ukraine, there is equipment that corrects fire against the Ukrainian population. Can he remove it? I think a week is enough for him to do that. If he doesn't, we will,» Zelensky said.

Ukraine has long claimed that Belarus hosts ground-based relay antennas forming part of the two-way video communication networks used by Russian long-range drones, including the Geran and Gerbera types, to strike Kyiv. The Russian military, like Ukraine's own forces, uses mesh networks in which drones equipped with cameras and special modems act as aerial relays for one another, extending communication range to hundreds of kilometres. The primary signal, however, originates from ground-based relay stations that Ukraine believes are located in Belarus.

Zelensky did not specify how exactly Ukraine would «remove» the equipment. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry Special Envoy Yaroslav Chornogir, who oversees relations with Belarusian democratic forces, told the Zerkalo outlet that physical destruction is not necessarily what was meant. «A similar situation arose in February. At that point it was possible, shall we say, to remotely suppress those relay stations,» he said.

Analysts divided on Ukraine's intentions

Expert opinion is split on whether Zelensky's ultimatum should be taken seriously. Former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus Igor Kizim described it as «a test of integrity», while Serhiy Sidorenko, editor of the Ukrainian outlet European Pravda, suggested Ukraine is genuinely prepared to strike Belarusian territory. Belarusian Radio Liberty political commentator Yuriy Drakhohrust, however, warned that such a strike would constitute a casus belli, a justification for war between Belarus and Ukraine, benefiting only Russia.

Analyst Alexander Fridman offered a more nuanced reading: «From official Minsk's side, steps toward de-escalation had rather been taken. But those steps were perceived in Kyiv as a sign of weakness. And so in Kyiv, it seems, the view has formed that Lukashenko is weak, uncertain of himself, and afraid of Ukraine. In that situation, pressing on him, playing on his nerves, even issuing an ultimatum... Ukraine has a completely new self-awareness now, and confidence. It would be strange if in such conditions they hadn't tried to press on Lukashenko.»

Lukashenko's silence, and a planned Putin meeting

Lukashenko has not publicly commented on Zelensky's relay-equipment ultimatum in nearly a week since it was issued. He has, however, announced an upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin, which the Kremlin confirmed will include discussion of Zelensky's ultimatum, as well as hinting at a lengthy foreign trip.

The incident involving a bus carrying Belarusian children, struck by a drone on June 17 in Russia's border region of Bryansk, killing one woman who was accompanying the group and injuring six others, including four children, added further tension. Russia and Ukraine blamed each other. Lukashenko stated the drone was Ukrainian but reacted with notable restraint, a response his own propagandists supplemented with more aggressive rhetoric.

Lukashenko has previously stated that Belarus would enter the war only if Ukraine attacked it directly, a position he reiterated twice in the past month. Whether Zelensky's ultimatum shifts that calculus will likely become clearer after the Putin-Lukashenko summit.