Margus Gering: Estonia's seat at Ukraine's reconstruction table must be earned now

The Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk on June 25-26 underscores that reconstruction is already underway, and whoever is present today will shape tomorrow's negotiations. Estonia's competitive advantage lies not in budget size but in reform experience, speed, and the ability to multiply international funding. Op-ed author Margus Gering argues that development cooperation must become a core strategic priority for Estonia, not an afterthought.

The reconstruction of Ukraine is not a future event, it is happening right now, and the positions being staked out today will determine who sits at the table when the largest contracts and decisions are made. So writes Margus Gering ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference, held on June 25-26, 2025 in Gdańsk, Poland.

$600 Billion and the Race for Position

The World Bank estimates that rebuilding Ukraine will require roughly $600 billion over the next decade. Gering argues that Estonia, and the international community at large, must stop treating this as humanitarian aid and start understanding it as strategic investment. «Those who wait will be left on the sidelines,» he warns, noting that access to Ukrainian ministries and local governments is already reserved for those who have earned trust on the ground over years of consistent engagement.

For Estonia, the alignment of values and interests with Ukraine is unusually clear. A stronger, more transparent, and more European Ukraine means a more secure neighbourhood for Tallinn. In Gering's view, development cooperation is therefore not idealistic side-work, it is a core pillar of Estonia's strategic presence in Europe.

Estonia's Competitive Edge

Estonia's currency in this process is practical reform experience. Over the past 30-plus years, Estonia built a functioning digital state, completed difficult institutional reforms, and developed transparent governance systems. Gering argues this track record makes Estonia a partner that «has walked the path itself» rather than offering abstract advice from the outside, exactly what Ukraine needs.

One concrete example: when preparing an analysis of educational technology and school reform, Estonia engaged more than 65,000 Ukrainian teachers, parents, and school administrators to ensure that proposed solutions would match the real expectations of Ukrainian society. This kind of ground-level engagement, Gering says, is what differentiates durable reform from imported blueprints.

Estonia's edge lies in speed, flexibility, and the ability to translate reform concepts into working systems. A small state cannot compete on raw financial volume, but it can move faster, experiment more intelligently, and convert ideas into practice, and that, Gering argues, gives Estonia outsized influence relative to its budget.

Seed Money That Multiplies

Gering points to a significant structural shift: in 2026, for the first time, Estonia's development cooperation is funded more by foreign donors (€23 million) than by the Estonian state budget (€16 million). In 2025, every euro from Estonia's state budget leveraged an additional 1.67 euros from external sources. Donors include the European Commission, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Japan, Ireland, Taiwan, the UAE, and the United States, a roster that reflects internationally recognised trust, not merely political goodwill.

In 2025, ESTDEV, Estonia's Centre for International Development Cooperation, worked with more than 70 partner organisations from the public, private, academic, and civil society sectors. Over the period from 2022 to 2027, Estonia plans to invest €74.7 million in Ukraine's reconstruction and development. With leveraged funding factored in, the real-world impact is considerably larger. Estimates suggest that every €1 million attracted from external sources into Estonian-led projects returns approximately €300,000 to the Estonian economy in tax revenues, as Estonian experts and companies are brought in to deliver the work.

The Risk of Fragmentation

The greatest risk, Gering warns, is that Estonia's role remains a collection of small, disconnected initiatives, visible enough to consume resources but too fragmented to generate coherent influence over large-scale processes. Reconstruction partners are assessed not only on contribution size but on strategic consistency and reliability.

Estonia is set to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2027, a significant opportunity whose value will depend entirely on what substance Estonia brings to it. The next two to three years will define whether Estonia earns a lasting seat at the table or remains a marginal player. «Security is built not only through defence spending,» Gering writes. «It is also built through strong partners, functioning institutions, and transparent governance, and development cooperation is part of that architecture.»