Norstat: Centre Party closes gap with Isamaa to four percentage points

According to Norstat's latest survey, Isamaa leads the party popularity rankings with 26% support, but the Centre Party has narrowed the gap to just four percentage points. Over the past three weeks, Isamaa's support has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while the Centre Party has grown by the same amount.

Polling firm Norstat's latest survey shows that Isamaa remains firmly in first place in the popularity rankings of Estonian parties, but its lead over second-placed Centre Party has continued to narrow.

Isamaa leads, Centre Party catching up

According to Norstat, Isamaa is supported by 26% of eligible Estonian voters. The Centre Party is in second place with 22% support, while the Social Democrats hold third place with 14.5%.

Over the past three weeks, Isamaa's support has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while the Centre Party's rating has grown by exactly the same amount. As a result, the gap between the two most popular parties has narrowed to four percentage points.

Coalition and opposition face off

The next positions in the rankings belong to EKRE with 13.4%, the Reform Party with 12.7%, the extra-parliamentary party Conservatives with 6.7%, and Estonia 200 with just 1.5%.

The combined support for the governing coalition parties, the Reform Party and Estonia 200, is 14.2%, while the opposition is backed by a total of 75.9% of respondents. In the current Riigikogu composition, however, the Reform Party and Estonia 200 still control 52 of 101 mandates, with the opposition holding 49 seats.

The Social Democrats have also strengthened their position, with their support growing by 1.4 percentage points over the past four weeks.

Survey methodology

The results are based on aggregated weekly survey data collected between 25 May and 20 June 2026. A total of approximately 4,000 eligible Estonian voters participated in the surveys.