Opinion: Putin's proposal to use Schröder as Ukraine war mediator surprised too many

Political scientist Toomas Alatalu argues that Vladimir Putin's suggestion to use former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a mediator in ending the Ukraine war should not have come as a surprise. Alatalu points out that Schröder was already present in Istanbul before the Ukraine-Russia peace talks resumed in March 2022. The piece examines the Kremlin's political kitchen and who ends up on its list of the 'happy few'.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal to use former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a potential mediator in ending the war in Ukraine has caught many observers off guard — but according to Estonian political scientist Toomas Alatalu, it really shouldn't have. Schröder, now 82 years old, was already in Istanbul before Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations resumed there in March 2022, a fact that has apparently slipped many memories.

Kremlin's Circle of the 'Happy'

Alatalu's analysis focuses on who finds themselves on what he calls the Kremlin's list of the "happy" — those figures whom Moscow considers suitable partners or intermediaries in high-stakes diplomatic manoeuvring. Schröder's long-standing personal relationship with Putin, including his role on the boards of Russian energy companies, has made him a recurring figure in this context, even as most Western leaders have shunned him.

The piece raises broader questions about the nature of back-channel diplomacy in the current conflict and how Russia selects its preferred interlocutors. Schröder's presence in Istanbul in the early weeks of the full-scale invasion was not widely reported at the time, yet it now appears to have laid the groundwork for his continued relevance in Putin's diplomatic calculus.

Why Istanbul Matters

The Istanbul talks of March 2022 remain a contested chapter in the history of the war. Ukraine and Russia came closer to a negotiated framework than at any point since, and various parties — including some Western governments — have drawn different lessons from their ultimate failure. Alatalu argues that understanding who was in the room, and why, is essential to interpreting Putin's current overtures.

For Estonian audiences, the episode serves as a reminder that Europe's pre-war entanglement with Russian energy and political influence continues to shape the diplomatic landscape — and that figures like Schröder, long criticised in the Baltic states for their ties to the Kremlin, have not disappeared from the stage.