Polish Intelligence Warns of Russian Provocation Risk Targeting Baltic States

Poland's intelligence chief Colonel Pawel Szota warns of growing danger that Russia is conducting provocations against NATO's eastern flank, including "little green men" type operations in the Baltic states. In his assessment, Moscow's failures in Ukraine may force the Kremlin to seek alternative escalation opportunities.

Poland's intelligence agency chief Colonel Pawel Szota warned on Saturday in an interview published on 27 June in the newspaper Rzeczpospolita that Russia's military failures in Ukraine could prompt the Kremlin to consider escalation on NATO's eastern flank, including in the Baltic states.

Green Men Back on Stage?

"We are watching what is happening in Ukraine, and we see that the war is going badly for Russia right now. This is a reason to worry that Moscow may take a step toward further escalation," Szota said. A small-scale attack against the Baltic states could in his view resemble a landing of "little green men," soldiers in military uniforms without insignia. Such tactics became known following the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

According to the intelligence chief, "Moscow systematically crosses red lines to test NATO's reaction." Such provocations carry a low cost, but the alliance's response is "primarily political, which encourages further escalation," he added.

Warsaw Warnings Align with NATO Intelligence Assessments

Szota's warnings align with those of Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who likewise warned the same week of a possible Russian false flag operation. "We need to make Putin understand that we know his plans, that we won't fall into his traps, that this is completely unacceptable, and that we will defend every inch of NATO territory," Sikorski said in an interview with the US media company CBS.

The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted that Russia has no intention of attacking NATO member states. At the same time, a number of military and intelligence agencies from NATO countries share Warsaw's assessment, with disagreements concerning only the possible scope and timing of an attack.