Putin warns Armenia against "Ukraine scenario" ahead of Sunday elections

Russia is intensifying pressure on Armenia ahead of the 7 June parliamentary elections, warning of what it calls a "Ukraine scenario". The Kremlin is criticising Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for his pro-Western course and demanding that pro-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan be allowed to run in the elections.

Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, 7 June, which Russia has begun actively seeking to influence. Vladimir Putin has warned of a so-called Ukraine scenario, alluding to the instability that could befall Armenia if the country continues on a pro-Western course. Russia has repeatedly criticised Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whom the Kremlin holds responsible for Yerevan's drift away from Moscow.

Pressure on Yerevan

Relations between Moscow and Yerevan deteriorated significantly after Russia refused to defend Armenia in its war with Azerbaijan. Since then, Armenia has deepened cooperation with both the European Union and the United States. In response, the Kremlin has begun exerting various forms of pressure on Armenia ahead of the elections.

Moscow is demanding that pro-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who is under house arrest, be allowed to participate in the elections. Networks of bots linked to the Kremlin have launched an extensive disinformation campaign targeting both Armenia as a whole and Prime Minister Pashinyan personally.

Armenians living in Russia as a pressure tool

Reuters reported that the Kremlin has discussed a plan to send 100,000 Armenians living in Russia to Yerevan to vote against Pashinyan. This shows how far Moscow is willing to go to influence the internal politics of a neighbouring country.

Armenia, however, has steadfastly maintained its pro-Western course: the country has strengthened ties with the EU and reduced its dependence on Russian-led security structures. The upcoming elections have thus become a battleground in the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West in the South Caucasus.