Rainer Saks: Russia has become especially dangerous — are Putin's threats credible?

Security expert Rainer Saks analyzes Russia's military situation following developments over the past two weeks. According to Ukraine's defence ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, Russia currently lacks ballistic missiles for daily attacks. Saks questions whether Putin's threats are genuinely executable.

Security expert and right-wing politician Rainer Saks raises an important question: has Russia become especially dangerous over the past two weeks and are Vladimir Putin's threats anything more than empty rhetoric?

Russia short on ballistic missiles

Ukraine's defence ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov revealed in an interview that Russia currently lacks ballistic missiles to conduct continuous daily attacks against Ukraine. This is important information for assessing Moscow's actual military capabilities, which appear to be considerably more limited than the Kremlin's threatening rhetoric might suggest.

In Saks's assessment, Russia's dangerousness should nonetheless be taken seriously, as even with a limited missile stockpile, the country is capable of inflicting serious damage. The question is not merely about the number of ballistic missiles, but also Russia's willingness to escalate the conflict through other means — using drones, cruise missiles, and conventional weapons systems.

Credibility of Putin's threats

The central analytical question is the extent to which Putin's verbal threats are actually carried out. Saks emphasizes that there is often a notable gap between threats and actual military action — Russia uses fear as a strategic tool, even when its actual capabilities have weakened.

From Estonia's security perspective, it is important to monitor how NATO allies assess Russia's actual military position and adapt their defences accordingly. The depletion of ballistic missile stocks does not automatically mean that the threat diminishes — Russia is actively investing in increasing its production capacity.