Report: US Must Prepare for Conflict on the Moon

A new report from a US think tank warns that strategic competition between the US and China is emerging on the Moon's south pole. Beyond space exploration, questions of security, resources, and international law have come to the forefront. Experts do not rule out that future space competition will extend beyond technological superiority alone.

A US think tank has published a report raising an alarming question: will humanity's next great leap into space usher in an entirely new era of conflict? According to the report, the Moon's south pole is becoming the next strategic target toward which both the United States and China are moving in parallel.

Resources and Security in the Balance

Until now, space exploration has been treated primarily as a symbol of science and international cooperation, but the situation is changing. Ice water deposits and other resources believed to exist on the Moon's south pole make the region geopolitically extremely attractive. Experts warn that this introduces a new dimension-the competition may no longer be purely technological but will also involve military and security policy considerations.

The report emphasizes that international space law, including the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, is not adapted to contemporary geopolitical tensions or resource competition. As a result, the authors urge the US to prepare for scenarios in which competition on the Moon could escalate into direct confrontation.

China as the Primary Competitor

China has made significant investments in its space program in recent years and aims to send humans to the Moon by 2030. The US views this as a direct challenge, particularly given that both nations have expressed interest in the same regions of the Moon's south pole, where presumed water ice deposits are located.

The report's authors note that the US must make significant decisions in the near term regarding funding, international partnerships, and security doctrine. Ignoring possible competition on the Moon could mean losing strategic initiative for an entire generation.