Statistics Office: apartment prices rose 14.9%, but market players have doubts

The Statistics Office reported that apartment prices in Estonia rose 14.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting a clear property boom. However, market participants cannot confirm such growth and believe the actual price increase is significantly more modest. Questions have emerged about whether the office's methodology reflects the true state of the market.

The Statistics Office released data on Friday, 19 June 2026, showing that apartment prices in Estonia rose 14.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. Such figures would suggest a clear property boom, a situation in which prices grow rapidly and the market is overheated.

The market feels no boom

The problem, however, is that real estate sector market participants, estate agents, developers, and analysts, cannot observe such price growth in their day-to-day activities. According to their experience, the actual price increase is significantly more modest, and the figures presented by the Statistics Office do not match what is happening on the market.

This divergence between statistical data and the actual market raises the question of whether the office's methodology honestly reflects the true state of the real estate market or whether there are distortions in data collection and processing.

Why do the figures diverge?

Measuring real estate price levels is a complex task because the number and structure of transactions can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If more expensive apartments are sold in one period and cheaper ones in another quarter, this can significantly affect the average price without any actual price increase occurring in any specific market segment.

Market participants' scepticism about the Statistics Office's data raises a broader question about the reliability of official statistics in assessing the real estate sector and how the public and investors should interpret such figures.