Ukraine intelligence claims Putin preparing new mobilisation wave in Russia

Ukrainian intelligence believes Putin is preparing a new mobilisation round in Russia, while Kyiv signals readiness to continue fighting for years. Security expert Rainer Saks analyses the latest strategic communications and their implications.

Ukrainian intelligence services believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new wave of military mobilisation, according to security expert Rainer Saks, who analysed recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Kyiv is simultaneously making a calculated effort in its communications directed at Russia — signalling that Ukraine is fully prepared to sustain combat operations for the years ahead. According to The Economist, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly ordered his military and government to make preparations for continuing active warfare for the next two to three years.

Ukraine's Long-Term War Strategy

This strategic messaging serves a dual purpose: bolstering domestic morale within Ukraine while also sending a clear signal to Moscow that Kyiv has no intention of capitulating or accepting unfavourable terms. The move suggests Ukraine is shifting its posture from reactive defence to long-term strategic endurance.

If Putin is indeed preparing a fresh mobilisation, it would mark a significant escalation of Russia's war effort and suggest that earlier recruitment drives and so-called «volunteer» enlistments have not sufficiently replenished frontline losses. A new mobilisation wave would carry major political risks domestically for the Kremlin, as the previous round in autumn 2022 triggered widespread protest and mass emigration from Russia.

Regional Security Implications

For Estonia and other Baltic states, both developments — Ukraine's declared readiness for a prolonged conflict and Russia's potential new mobilisation — carry significant security implications. Analysts have consistently warned that a prolonged war in Ukraine remains the most likely scenario, one that keeps pressure on NATO's eastern flank and demands continued allied support for Kyiv.