Uppsala professor: Bleak scenarios await Russia after the war

Uppsala University professor Stefan Hedlund predicts three possible future scenarios for Russia: fragmentation, collapse, and North Korea-style isolation. In his recently published book in Estonian, "Russia Will Become Moscow Again," he analyzes post-war developments in Russia. Hedlund presented his ideas at the HeadRead literature festival.

Stefan Hedlund, a 72-year-old professor at Uppsala University, has published a book in Estonian titled "Russia Will Become Moscow Again," the original version of which was released in 2025. The work offers a comprehensive analysis of what Russia's future could look like after the current conflict ends.

Three future scenarios

Hedlund outlines three main paths that Russia may follow. The first is fragmentation — the country's disintegration into separate entities, which would mean both political and security crises across the entire region. The second scenario is complete collapse, involving widespread failure of state administration and the economy. As a third option, the professor envisions Russia's "North Korea-ification" — the emergence of a closed, isolated, and militarized state.

HeadRead brings the topic to public attention

Hedlund presented his analysis at the Estonian literature festival HeadRead, where his themes apparently resonated strongly with audiences. For Estonian readers, the question of Russia's future is particularly acute, given the countries' shared history and geopolitical proximity.

The book's title "Russia Will Become Moscow Again" points to the author's assessment that Russia's current state model may revert to a far more limited and less influential political entity — similar to the medieval Grand Duchy of Moscow. This is a provocative thesis that challenges the assumption that Russia will in any case remain a unified great power.