US-Iran nuclear negotiations: Is an agreement even possible?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed to Congress that Washington will not offer Iran sanctions relief solely in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts, however, believe there are possible solutions to reaching an agreement that would require substantial compromise from both sides.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress this week in no uncertain terms that the United States does not intend to offer Iran sanctions relief or access to frozen assets merely because Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. According to Rubio, the US is not prepared to provide economic relief to Iran's Islamist regime without genuine behavioural change.

Nevertheless, there are multiple interpretations to be found in the Secretary of State's remarks. According to experts, Rubio's harsh statements do not necessarily mean that all paths to negotiations are closed. Rather, they suggest that any agreement would require significant flexibility and creative diplomacy from both sides.

Hormuz and sanctions

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical sea routes, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass. Iranian threats to close the strait have created significant tension in energy markets and compelled the US administration to seek a diplomatic solution.

Iran is pursuing a nuclear programme that has concerned Western nations for years. Washington has imposed extensive economic pressure measures on Tehran, and easing these sanctions is one of Iran's main objectives in negotiations. The problem is that both sides' demands currently appear difficult to reconcile.

Why an agreement is complicated

Analysts note that a functional agreement would likely require revising some major assumptions. The US must accept that Iran demands concrete economic guarantees before making any concessions in the nuclear sphere. For its part, Iran would need to accept significantly stricter international monitoring of its nuclear programme.

In summary, the success of negotiations depends on whether both sides can find language that allows them to present the agreement domestically as a "win", even if the actual substance requires substantial compromises.